I just was asked an eminently logical question: The President and the Speaker were so close to a deal. The differences in their numbers for revenues and spending cuts were small. Divided by ten (for the ten years likely to be covered by any deal), they were even smaller. Why have the talks taken the current apparent turn onto a siding that by all appearances is a dead end? Why can’t they get to yes? Here is my try at an answer.
From the most optimistic perspective: The President and the Speaker are figuratively negotiating in a closed room, on behalf of the members of their respective political bases who are waiting outside. To achieve any form of agreement, the President and the Speaker must compromise their positions. But to satisfy their political bases that the compromise is the best deal possible, the principals must negotiate right up to (or beyond) the deadline, and then walk out of the room with blood on their brows. (People who have negotiated trade agreements have told me that the bargaining always runs beyond the deadline, as much for this reason as for any substantive issues that might arise.) If this is the operative consideration, then expect the room to remain closed for some time, possibly into January, before the exhausted and battered negotiators come from the room to declare “victory” to their inevitably unhappy, but hopefully marginally satisfied, troops.
